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Showing posts with the label Arvind Subramanian

GST Cuts, Flip-Flops, and the Politics of Masterstrokes

  The government and its cheerleaders are in high spirits again, beating drums for their favourite emperor’s latest “masterstroke.” This time, it’s the modest reduction in GST rates. TV Panels and Tweets buzzing with self-congratulatory chatter. Analysts calling it a historic, and even P. Chidambaram grudgingly called it a “reform”—with the delicious aftertaste of his caveat, “eight years late.” But let us pause. Let us ask the questions that Delhi’s television studios won’t: is tinkering with GST rates a reform? Does lowering a tax slab address the structural bottlenecks that suffocate Indian industry? Or is it another aspirin for a fever whose cause lies deeper in the bones of our political economy? The uncomfortable answer: this is not reform. This is a quick-fix, stitched together to meet political needs in Bihar and to respond to Trump’s tariffs across the ocean. Washington’s second wave of tariffs—punitive and linked to India’s oil flirtations with Russia—landed like a th...

India's Economic Jugglery: How we fool ourselves.

 https://www.business-standard.com/opinion/columns/fiis-vs-diis-reversing-roles-in-india-s-equity-market-after-25-years-125081402018_1.html https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/net-fdi-falls-to-40-million-in-may-2025-on-higher-outflows-125072301466_1.html Let’s stitch together three reports and an opinion piece from Business Standard all recent—and read the tea leaves. In 1992, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) dipped their toes into Indian equity with a modest investment of ₹13 crore. Domestic players (DIIs) then sat fat with ₹45,000 crore. Fast forward to 2014: the equations flipped. FIIs had ballooned to ₹6.6 trillion, while DIIs were crawling at ₹42,000 crore. In 2025, they’ve switched again: FIIs at ₹10 trillion, DIIs overtaking them at ₹14 trillion. Janak Raj of the Centre for Social and Economic Progress hails this as resilience. But let’s not dress up this as a symbol of “Atmanirbhar Bharat”. Capital has no hews of colour. Now to the horror story: net FD...